Modelling the labour market of minority ethnic groups

This paper investigates the effects, in terms of labour and macroeconomic indicators, of closing the gap between the ethnic minority employment rate and the overall population rate using a computable general equilibrium modelling framework. The labour market has been integrated by indicators related to ethnicity, employment status and occupational class. The policy test has been designed for the UK. According to the results, the policy actions aimed to remove the barriers that contribute to the unemployment of the minority ethnic groups improve not only the employment and occupational status of these groups, but the effects are also positive in terms of aggregate employment, GDP, trade and welfare

CAN PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURE REDUCE THE SHADOW ECONOMY?

This paper empirically examines whether devoting more resources to education can reduce the size of the shadow economy on a cross-section of countries. The findings show a negative relationship between public education expenditure and the size of the shadow economy, which is robust to the inclusion of different proxies for the control variables, a large set of policy variables and regional differences. The findings also suggest that an increase in educational attainment can reduce the size of the shadow economy

A macroeconomic analysis of the public investments in European combined transport

Intermodal transport has been recognized as a priority by the European Union, that has defined different budget allocations of investments to improve the shifting from road to intermodal transport, which is more sustainable. In this context, the main aim of the paper is to discuss the macroeconomic effects, in terms of economic growth, welfare and trade, of these public investments for combined transport, which aspects have been neglected in literature. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model has been used. Themain results have been that the European Union benefits from these investments, but at international level, USA and Japan would lose in terms of welfare. Furthermore, the welfare change has been decomposed in its components and the results show that the trade effects are higher than the allocative effects. The robustness of the results has been tested over time and by a sensitivity analysis of the exchange rate

The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “market solution”. The market price for water adjusts such that supply and demand are equated again. In the third group of simulations the economic implications of China’s capital investment in infrastructure for the water South-North water transfer project is analyzed. Finally, the investment is combined with the increased capacity of water. If an increase in water supply in China leads to an increase in productivity of their water-intensive goods and services (non-market solution) this would result in a huge positive welfare effect from increased production and export. The effect on China’s welfare would still be positive, if a market for water would exist (market solution), but the world as a whole would lose. The negative effect for the rest of the world is largely explained by a deterioration of its terms-of-trade. Well functioning water markets in China are unlikely to exist.Computable General Equilibrium, South-North Water Transfer Project, Water Policy, Water Scarcity

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE SOUTH-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT IN CHINA: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “market solution”. The market price for water adjusts such that supply and demand are equated again. In the third group of simulations the economic implications of China’s capital investment in infrastructure for the water South-North water transfer project is analyzed. Finally, the investment is combined with the increased capacity of water. If an increase in water supply in China leads to an increase in productivity of their water-intensive goods and services (non-market solution) this would result in a huge positive welfare effect from increased production and export. The effect on China’s welfare would still be positive, if a market for water would exist (market solution), but the world as a whole would lose. The negative effect for the rest of the world is largely explained by a deterioration of its terms-of-trade. Well functioning water markets in China are unlikely to exist.Computable General Equilibrium, South-North Water Transfer Project, Water Policy, Water Scarcity

The Economic Impact Water Taxes: a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with an International Data Set

Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument to improve the allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that impacts of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an analysis of international trade implications. We include water as a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, and international trade patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonetheless affected by other countries' taxes. Taxes on agricultural water use drive most of the economic and welfare impacts. Reductions in water use (welfare losses) are less (more) than linear in the price of water. The results are sensitive to the assumed ability to substitute other production factors for water. A water tax on production would have different effects on water use, production and trade patterns, and the size and distribution of welfare losses than would a water tax on final consumption.Computable General Equilibrium, Virtual Water, Water Allocation, Water Pricing, Water Scarcity

A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON TOURISM

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists’ expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.Climate Change, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Tourism

An Analytic Hierarchy Process for The Evaluation of Transport Policies to Reduce Climate Change Impacts

Transport is the sector with the fastest growth of greenhouse gases emissions, both in developed and in developing countries, leading to adverse climate change impacts. As the experts disagree on the occurrence of these impacts, by applying the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we have faced the question on how to form transport policies when the experts have different opinions and beliefs. The opinions of experts have been investigated by a means of a survey questionnaire. The results show that tax schemes aiming at promoting environmental-friendly transport mode are the best policy. This incentives public and environmental-friendly transport modes, such as car sharing and car pooling.Analytic Hierarchy Process, Transport Policies, Climate Change

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling experiment

In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-ofthe- art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasize the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.Land-use change, computable general equilibrium modeling, integrated assessment, climate change

Klum@Gtap: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions Into a General Equilibrium Model A Coupling Experiment

In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasize the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.Land-Use Change, Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Climate Change